Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Bowl XLV prediction

The Super Bowl is finally here, and for some strange reason, the facts that the Miami Dolphins beat the NFC champion Packers on their home turf, and essentially beat the AFC champion Steelers save for a controversial fumble call don't quite make me feel any better today.

I've been predicting the games all year, with moderate success, but now there is only one game left. A game that, if I predict correctly, will erase all the time I picked the Dolphins to beat superior teams.

Last week's record: 2-0
2010 season record: 174-92 (65.4%)*

*Gained .3 percentage points by picking the Packers and Steelers two weeks ago in the conference championships. Boom, roasted!

Objectively, I can say that this is definitely one of the best Super Bowl matchups we've had in a long time. Ignoring all the crap about them being storied franchises, Vince Lombardi, Terry Bradshaw, blah, blah, blah, this game matches up two of the best offenses and defenses in the NFL and should make for a hell of a game.

What's interesting here is that the Steelers have the defensive advantage and the Packers the offensive advantage, but we all know that the Steelers' offense can torch you as well as anyone at times, and the Packers' defense can be quite dominant in their own right.

I'm not sure how much Maurkice Pouncey's absence will hurt them, but I don't expect it to swing the game totally in Green Bay's favor. Both teams' rosters are so good from top to bottom that they will recover from any missing pieces today.

I don't, however, put much stock into the Steelers' six Super Bowl titles to the Packers' three, nor do I put much stock into the fact that some of the Steelers' players have "been there before." Plenty of players and teams haven't won Super Bowls...until they won them, and today could easily the Packers' day.

I don't expect many big, game-changing plays today, but rather just a hard-fought, back-and-forth game. In the end, I like Aaron Rodgers to toss a few touchdowns in a solid performance and come out as the slightly boring quarterback pick for MVP.

Packers: 23
Steelers: 17

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