Pre-Training Camp Final Roster Predictions

With final cutdowns still over a month away, odds are these predictions wind up horrible off. But I figured it would still be fun at this point to try and make my best guess at the 53-man roster come September. A few things to keep in mind:

• A lot of things can and will change between now and September 1, so I don't expect these to be very accurate
• I am not taking into account any possible signings or roster additions (Terry Glenn, anyone?) during camp or the preseason, and such occurrences would obviously throw these predictions off

Quarterbacks (3): Josh McCown, John Beck, Chad Henne

Running backs (4): Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Jalen Parmele, Lex Hilliard

Fullbacks (2): Reagan Mauia, Boomer Grigsby

Wide receivers (5): Ernest Wilford, Ted Ginn, Jr., Derek Hagan, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess

Tight ends (3): Anthony Fasano, Justin Peelle, Sean Ryan

Offensive tackles (3): Jake Long, Vernon Carey, Trey Darilek

Offensive guards (4): Justin Smiley, Steve McKinney, Shawn Murphy, Donald Thomas

Centers (2): Samson Satele, Mike Byrne

Defensive ends (5): Randy Starks, Vonnie Holliday, Philip Merling, Kendall Langford, Rodrique Wright

Defensive tackles (2): Jason Ferguson, Paul Soliai

Outside linebackers (5): Joey Porter, Charlie Anderson, Quentin Moses, Junior Glymph, Titus Brown

Inside linebackers (3): Channing Crowder, Akin Ayodele, Reggie Torbor

Cornerbacks (5): Will Allen, Michael Lehan, Andre' Goodman, Nathan Jones, Joey Thomas

Safeties (4): Jason Allen, Yeremiah Bell, Chris Crocker, Keith Davis

Special teams (3): Jay Feely, Brandon Fields, John Denney

Total: 53

Some of my the most notable cuts:

• RB Patrick Cobbs - if Lex Hilliard can show ability on special teams, the team will probably keep him around in lieu of Cobbs.
  
• TE David Martin - Fasano was clearly acquired to be a starter and Martin was pretty much horrible in all aspects last season. I think they go with some stronger blockers in Peelle and Ryan to back up
  
• DE Matt Roth - Roth has shown flashes during his three-year career but has yet to establish himself as a legitimate starter with only three sacks last season. I also don't see him as a good fit in the 3-4, and with all the bodies added to the position in the offseason I don't see the use for him here.
  
• CB Travis Daniels - Daniels has regressed since his 2005 rookie season and is not a legitimate starter, which is why I think former Cowboys Nathan Jones and Joey Thomas beat him out.
  
• FS Renaldo Hill - Hill is solid and could make the team, but I think Jason Allen will start and the Dolphins go with a healthier Chris Crocker as backup.

I can't imagine we'll all see eye-to-eye on this, so I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on my predictions and what you see happening differently! Also, you can check out my latest projected depth chart spreadsheet here.

Most Intriguing Training Camp Battles, No. 8: Backup RB

Assuming all goes well with Ronnie Brown's rehab and Ricky Williams'...being him, the Dolphins should have quite a 1-2 punch at running back for the coming season. Hopefully for the Dolphins, the backs behind those two on the depth chart won't see more than a carry here or there. That being said, the third running back will have to be up to the task if called upon, and just who that back will be has yet to be decided.

After Ronnie and Ricky, the lone holdover at the position from the previous season is Patrick Cobbs. An undrafted free agent out of North Texas in 2006, Cobbs has established himself as a quality special teams player over the past two seasons with the Dolphins. He's a compact guy at 5-foot-8 and 210 pounds and has shown some ability in the preseason, though he's gotten very few chances on offense in the regular season with only 15 carries and one touchdown in his career.

Cobbs' main challenger is rookie Jalen Parmele, who was drafted in the sixth round out of Toledo. In addition to being a "Parcells guy", Parmele is more talented and has more upside than Cobbs. He doesn't have blazing speed or great power, but he's solid in all aspects and will at least be a backup in the NFL.

In reality, the battle here might be more between Cobbs and sixth-rounder Lex Hilliard. With the fullback job between Mauia and Grigsby, Hilliard is going to have to shine on special teams in order to make the squad out of camp. If he can do that, he should supplant Cobbs as a special teamer and No. 4 back. While teams often keep only three backs, four doesn't seem out of the question for the Dolphins given Ronnie's injury and Ricky's unreliability.

The position(s):Backup running back spots
Number of spots: 1-2
The contenders: Patrick Cobbs, Jalen Parmele, Lex Hilliard
Predicted winner(s): Parmele and Hilliard
Reason: Cobbs hasn't much upside and is little more than a special teamer. Meanwhile, Parmele is more of a legitimate backup running back at this point and has a brighter future. If Hilliard showcases himself on special teams, his versatility at fullback and tailback will earn him the final spot over the holdover Cobbs.

Most Intriguing Training Camp Battles, No. 9: Starting FB

With Miami still lacking a proven quarterback, but in possession of two potentially Pro Bowl-caliber running backs, there is little doubt the emphasis will be on running the ball in 2008. That being the case, the Dolphins will also need a bruising fullback to open up holes for Ronnie and Ricky. Who the fullback will be has yet to be determined and it makes for quite an interesting preseason battle.

The incumbent, Reagan Mauia, was drafted by the "old regime" the sixth round in 2007 out of Hawaii. While he gained quite a bit of attention from his YouTube video where he runs through a wall, he has yet to display such power on the football field. From what I saw of him during his rookie season, he was only average when it came to power and very rarely did I see him knock guys around. Furthermore, he showed very little ability as a pass receiver and a surprising lack of power in short-yardage carries. One also cannot forget Mauia's April arrest, who may put him in Parcells' dog house and give him a very short leash when it comes to future incidents.

The "Parcells guy" in this battle is Boomer Grigsby. The 26-year-old Grigsby has spent the last four season with the Chiefs after being drafted by them in the fifth round out of Illinois State in 2004. Primarily a special teamer, he was converted from linebacker to fullback prior to the 2007 season.

As one would expect from a converted linebacker, Grigsby isn't a threat with the ball in his hands and was still primarily a special teamer last season while backing up Kris Wilson at fullback. Neither he nor Mauia seem to have any advantage (or talent) in this area, and fortunately it's not something that will play a large part in their roles the team.

The key to this battle is who can establish themselves as a lead blocker for the run-oriented offense. Mauia (6-0, 270) has the size advantage over Grigsby (5-11, 249). However, as I mentioned before, Mauia didn't show a whole lot of power on offense a rookie. Meanwhile, Grigsby is your typical hard-nosed, blue-collar [insert more clichés here] guy who has plenty of experience as a wedge buster on special teams.

There is a third player the position in sixth-rounder Lex Hilliard, though he is such a long shot to win a starting job I don't feel the need to give him much attention here. The running back/fullback will have his hands full just making the team, and his primary focus will likely be on special teams early on.

With no other candidates on the roster and none likely to be signed before the season barring injury, the battle comes down to Mauia and Grigsby. Both took reps with the first team during offseason workouts, so this battle is far from over and definitely something to keep an eye on.

The position(s): Starting fullback
Number of spots: One
The contenders: Reagan Mauia, Boomer Grigsby, Lex Hilliard
Predicted winner(s): Mauia
Reason: Mauia has more upside than Grigsby, while Grigsby is a huge asset on special teams. I feel that the organization will give Mauia the chance to establish himself as the starting fullback, because it's a place he could really thrive for years if he pans out. That being said, the Dolphins probably wouldn't hesitate to toss Grigsby in there if Mauia doesn't separate himself and get the job done.

2008 Draft Analysis: Part III

This is the second four videos covering the Dolphins' 2008 NFL Draft selections, with this one discussing the selections of Utah State guard Shawn Murphy and Toledo running back Jalen Parmele. I also talk about the trading of running back Lorenzo Booker to the Philadelphia Eagles. Be sure to check out the rest of the draft analysis videos as well as the rest of my videos from the day!

ERFAs Camarillo, Cobbs and Ndukwe re-signed

The Dolphins re-signed all their remaining exclusive-rights free agents today as wide receiver Greg Camarillo, running back Patrick Cobbs and guard Ike Ndukwe signed their one-year tenders.

Exclusive-rights free agents are players with fewer than three accrued NFL seasons whose contracts had expired. As ERFAs, the three had no negotiating rights with other teams and could only re-sign with the Dolphins or not play football in 2008.

Background & Analysis

Camarillo was claimed off waivers from the Chargers prior to the season opener in 2007. He appeared in 15 games for the Dolphins, catching eight passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He also made three special teams tackles.

Despite his heroics in Miami's only win of the season, Camarillo will face stiff competition to make the team. Assuming Miami keeps five receivers, Ernest Wilford, Ted Ginn, Jr. and Derek Hagan are all locks or close to it. Miami could also draft a receiver in the first three rounds which one take up another spot, while players like Tab Perry and David Kircus are more talented receivers than Camarillo. He will likely be in competition with Perry, Kircus, Kerry Reed, Chandler Williams and a couple drafted and undrafted rookies for the last receiver spot. His special teams abilities will help his chances.

Cobbs has nearly all of the past two seasons with the Dolphins after going undrafted in 2006. He is a sub-par rusher and a solid special teams player, and would likely begin the season as fourth on the depth chart at running back if camp opened today. A few more bodies will likely come through cheap free agents or undrafted rookies, and Cobbs will have to earn his spot on the roster with all-around good play. Slowed rehabilitation for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams would help Cobbs' chances, but he's still going to have his hands full.

Ike Ndukwe was signed by the Dolphins off Baltimore's practice squad in late December after cornerback Andre' Goodman was placed on injured reserve. He was inactive for the season finale against Cincinnati. The 25-year-old Ndukwe has also spent time with the New Orleans Saints Washington Redskins and has bounced between the active roster and practice squad throughout his career. His only regular season game experience came in 2006 with Baltimore. He is also the older brother of Bengals safety Chinedum Ndukwe.

Ndukwe (6-4, 338) is the kind of big-bodied offensive lineman that Parcells loves. He also has a few years of learning experience and is a solid run blocker. Miami is currently lacking a starting left guard, but Ndukwe likely won't get much of a chance at the role. He is, one of only three guards on the roster after Justin Smiley and should have a good chance to compete for a reserve role with Trey Darilek and Drew Mormino, but Miami is likely to add more competition before camp.

2008 Offseason Preview: Running Backs

Here is my second-to-last offseason preview video, this one on the running backs. The final video, on the quarterbacks, will be up Thursday. Free agency begins the following day, so I'm sure I'll have plenty of different stuff to discuss soon. Enjoy!

Dan Henning hired as offensive coordinator

The Dolphins completed their coaching staff on Monday, February 4, hiring former Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator for the same role in Miami. Henning is 65 years old (hence the picture to the right) and brings with him 28 years of NFL coaching experience.

The move to hire Henning marks the first time the Dolphins have had a true offensive coordinator since Mike Mularkey held the title in 2006, as former head coach Cam Cameron called the plays himself last season.

For more background info and analysis on the hiring, watch the following video. Enjoy!

Tony Sparano Impact Report

The following is an article about the hiring of Tony Sparano for KFFL.com.

Coming off a dismal 1-15 season – the worst in the franchise’s 42-year history – the Dolphins have will now have their third different head coach in three seasons starting in 2008. Tony Sparano – an assistant under various titles for the Dallas Cowboys since 2003 – takes the reins under front-office honcho Bill Parcells and new general manager Jeff Ireland as the Dolphins look to get out of the NFL’s cellar.

Background

Sparano, 46, joins the Dolphins with over two decades of college and pro coaching experience. After graduating from the University of New Haven in 1982, where he was also the starting center, Sparano served as the offensive line coach at his alma mater from 1984 to 1987. He then served in the same capacity for Boston University for one season, followed by a return to New Haven as offensive coordinator. After running the team’s offense from 1989 to 1993, Sparano spent the next five seasons as the team’s head coach.

In 1999, Sparano made the leap to the NFL coaching ranks as offensive quality control coach for the Cleveland Browns. He held the role for two seasons, after which time he served as tight ends coach for the Washington Redskins in 2001 and then the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2002.

Sparano joined Bill Parcells’ staff with the Dallas Cowboys in 2003 and held multiple titles as an assistant through 2007. He was the Cowboys’ tight ends coach from 2003 to 2004, offensive line coach/running game coordinator in 2005, assistant head coach/offensive line coach/running game coordinator in 2006 and assistant head coach/offensive line coach in 2007.

A Welcome Change

Not only was change enticing after a horrendous season, it become vital after Cam Cameron lost the whole team by season’s end. Reports of the locker room chaos were revealed after Cameron’s departure, painting a more disastrous picture than the team’s record could do alone. Cameron was too strict at times, kicking veteran defensive tackle Keith Traylor off the team to the chagrin of veterans like Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor. He was too soft at others, letting linebacker Joey Porter berate him in front of the entire team for three minutes without so much of a word in defense. By the end, change was not a possibility – it was a necessity.

Sparano appears in some ways to be the anti-Cameron – a hard-nosed, no-nonsense kind of coach who commands the respect of the players and respects them as well. While there is always optimism after a team makes changes coming off a bad experience, the reality is that things really can’t get much worse anyway.

Run, Run, Run

Cameron called the offensive plays himself in 2007 with horrendous results, though that may have been more a result of lack of talent and extensive injuries than the lack of a true offensive coordinator. In fact, a similar strategy remains a possibility during Sparano’s first season, depending on whether or not an adequate coach can be found.

With the Dolphins’ instability at quarterback coupled with Sparano’s history as a former offensive lineman, offensive line coach and running game coordinator, expect a heavy emphasis on the running game for the Dolphins in 2008. The team’s run blocking was far better than its pass protection in 2007 and the Dolphins are deep at the running back position. Ronnie Brown was on his way to a Pro Bowl season before tearing his ACL but should return to full health, and Ricky Williams remains to give the Dolphins possibly one of the best two-head rushing attacks in the NFL. Additionally, rookie Lorenzo Booker showed his versatility with a 4.5 rushing average and 28 receptions – all in the team’s final five games.

On defense, an even stronger push to the 3-4 is likely with Parcells and Ireland building the roster. The Dolphins have attempted to move toward the 3-4 ever since Nick Saban took over in 2005, but have lacked the personnel to run it as their base defense. They have the outside linebackers for the scheme in Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but lack the bulk on the defensive line. In addition Zach Thomas, while a constant force for the Dolphins for over a decade, has had problems with injuries and is undersized for the 3-4.

Fantasy Impact

As already discussed, the lack of a quarterback will likely mean an emphasis on the run for the Dolphins offensively. As long as he gets help up front, Ronnie Brown should continue to progress and will be Miami’s top fantasy option. Ricky Williams will also be worth a roster spot, given that Brown is coming off an injury and Sparano has a history with a two-back system.

While there’s little to get excited about in the passing game, second-year player Ted Ginn Jr. is probably the most viable fantasy option at receiver. Ginn caught 34 passes for 420 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie despite working with three different quarterbacks – none of which performed particularly well.

For individual defensive player leagues, there are a few possible fantasy options. The Dolphins didn’t always use linebacker Joey Porter in the best way in 2007, but he picked it up in the second half of the season with 4.5 sacks and two interceptions after Week 10. Defensive end Jason Taylor can seemingly always be counted on for double-digit sacks plus some forced fumbles and interceptions. Linebacker Zach Thomas is still a tackling machine, while third-year linebacker Channing Crowder recorded 78 tackles in just 11 games.